Bayesian Probability

tags

Statistics

An “evidential” or “subjective” interpretation of probability: probability is a quantitative expression of a reasonable expectation or belief.

Core is Bayes' theorem:

\begin{equation} P(A|B) = \frac{P(B|A) \cdot P(A)}{P(B)} \end{equation}

Read “P(A|B)” as “the probability of A given B.” This theorem lets you refine your calculation of the probability of A using your knowledge about some related condition B.

cf Frequentist Probability